We Backtested ChatGPT’s Stock Picks for 12 Months — Here’s What Beat the S&P 500

Everyone’s asked ChatGPT for stock picks at some point. But almost no one tracks what happens after.

So I did.

Over 12 months, I asked ChatGPT to generate a new portfolio each month — five stocks or ETFs it would recommend for long-term investors — and built a virtual portfolio from those picks. Then I tracked how it performed against the S&P 500.

This wasn’t a game or a short-term trading challenge. It was a controlled test to see if AI could actually help beginners build a rational, long-term portfolio — and even outperform the market.

The results? Surprisingly practical. Some months… shockingly good.

🟨 Why This Matters for Real Investors

There are thousands of YouTube videos where people ask ChatGPT “What stocks should I buy?” and then:

• Buy what it says with zero follow-up

• Make fun of the answers

• Skip tracking the results entirely

That’s not helpful.

Beating the S&P 500 is hard — most professional investors can’t do it. If AI has any shot at helping everyday investors, it needs more than one-off prompts. It needs testing, tracking, and accountability.

This test wasn’t about predicting the future. It was about process — and whether ChatGPT could consistently suggest smart portfolio components over time.

🧪 The Method: How I Ran the Backtest

Step-by-step:

1. At the start of each month, I gave ChatGPT the same prompt.

2. Invested $833.33 into each of its five suggestions.

3. If it repeated a stock from a previous month, I increased its weight.

4. No judgment calls. No cherry-picking. Just AI vs the index.

📅 ChatGPT’s Picks by Month

Here’s a snapshot from four standout months:

Month 1 (April)AAPL, MSFT, VTI, JNJ, NVDA 🧠 Mega-cap tech + healthcare + index ETF — strong start.

Month 4 (July) SCHD, UNH, KO, QQQ, JPM 🛡️ Stability, dividends, and broad exposure.

Month 8 (November) META, COST, XLV, BRK.B, TSM 📈 Growth mixed with defensives and ETFs.

Month 12 (March) AMZN, VOO, ABT, XLF, MSFT 🧩 Tech, value, healthcare, finance — anchored with VOO.

💡 What I Noticed About AI’s Selection Behavior

Over 12 months, some patterns stood out:

• Preferred blue-chip, low-volatility companies

• Heavily favored ETFs like VTI, VOO, SCHD, XLV

• Chose dividend payers in more than half the months

• Never selected speculative or meme stocks

Top 5 most recommended assets:

1. VOO

2. MSFT

3. SCHD

4. AAPL

5. JNJ

Overall, the portfolio resembled something a conservative financial advisor might build — not a speculative gamble.

📈 Performance: ChatGPT vs S&P 500

Over 12 months, ChatGPT outperformed by +2.9% — with similar volatility and no wild drawdowns.

It didn’t “crush” the market, but it did quietly beat it while staying steady.

📊 Sector Exposure Breakdown

AI tended to lean toward:

• Recession-resistant sectors (healthcare, staples)

• Broad market ETFs (VOO, VTI)

• Steady-growth tech (MSFT, AAPL, NVDA)

This defensive tilt likely cushioned the portfolio during drawdowns.

✅ What ChatGPT Did Right

• Recommended diversified ETFs in most months

• Balanced blue-chip growth with stable dividends

• Kept tech exposure high but not excessive

• Prioritized resilience over speculation

• Picked several top annual performers (e.g., NVDA, META)

❌ Where ChatGPT Fell Short

• No macro-awareness — didn’t adjust for inflation, rate hikes, or rotations

• Equal-weight allocations limited efficiency

• Overused certain ETFs → overlap risk

• Missed commodity & energy rallies (no XLE, CVX, etc.)

Even with these blind spots, the conservative default worked in its favor.

🧠 Should Beginners Use ChatGPT for Stock Picks?

Bottom line: ChatGPT is a learning accelerator, not a replacement for due diligence.

💡 Key Lessons from This Test

1. Simple beats speculative — The AI stuck to proven names, and it worked.

2. ETFs are beginner gold — VOO, SCHD, XLV are consistent performers.

3. AI speeds up confidence — You can quickly compare assets and learn structures.

4. You still need a system — Without testing and tracking, you’re just guessing.

⚠️ The Risk of Blind Following

If you invest without knowing why, you’ll panic at the first dip.

AI is a tool — it won’t make you a disciplined investor by itself. I still had to:

• Validate every pick

• Track sector overlap

• Decide when to hold or reallocate

• Simulate performance under different market conditions

Treat ChatGPT as your assistant, not your fund manager.

🔵 How to Replicate My System

Tools I Used:

• ChatGPT Premium (GPT-4) — monthly prompts + explanations

• StockEducation.com — ETF screeners, AI-powered backtests, risk models

• Google Sheets — tracking returns

• Yahoo Finance — historical prices, sector data

Steps:

1. Take StockEducation’s free AI investing quiz

2. Get a beginner portfolio strategy tailored to your risk level

3. Simulate ChatGPT’s picks before investing real money

4. Use the ETF analyzer to check fees, overlap, and exposure

5. Build confidence with data — not hype